Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
