Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
